MEM99
FINAL
115POR
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Memphis Grizzlies vs Portland Trail Blazers — Win Probability

FINAL
Memphis Grizzlies logo
Memphis Grizzlies
43-26
99
VS
Portland Trail Blazers logo
Portland Trail Blazers
30-39
115
Model expected score: Memphis Grizzlies 119.2 – Portland Trail Blazers 116.1 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MEM
  • Isaiah StewartDay-To-Day
  • Quinten PostDay-To-Day
  • Scotty Pippen Jr.Out
  • Richie SaundersOut
POR
  • Ja MorantOut
  • Vit KrejciOut
  • Shaedon SharpeOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Grizzlies 60%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Blazers won by 16
COMBINED SCORE
214

Margin of Victory — Portland Trail Blazers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
59%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14
12%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
7%
Won by 21+
4%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 214.

O/U LINE 210
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 220
79% over21% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
61% over39% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
41% over59% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
22% over78% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
10% over90% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MEM
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Ja MorantPG
23.2
Jaren Jackson Jr.C
22.2
Desmond BaneSG
19.2
Jaylen WellsSG
10.4
Scotty Pippen Jr.PG
9.9
POR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Anfernee SimonsSG
19.3
Shaedon SharpeSG
18.5
Deni AvdijaSF
16.9
Deandre AytonC
14.4
Jerami GrantPF
14.4
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