NY105
FINAL
120SA
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New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs — Win Probability

FINAL
New York Knicks logo
New York Knicks
43-23
105
VS
San Antonio Spurs logo
San Antonio Spurs
28-39
120
Model expected score: New York Knicks 117.2 – San Antonio Spurs 115.0 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

NY
  • Josh HartDay-To-Day
SA
  • Devin VassellDay-To-Day
  • Tobias HarrisOut
  • Jayden QuaintanceOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Knicks 58%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Spurs won by 15
COMBINED SCORE
225

Margin of Victory — San Antonio Spurs (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
56%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
13%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
8%
Won by 21+
5%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 225.

O/U LINE 210
88% over ✓12% under
O/U LINE 220
74% over ✓26% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
55% over45% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
34% over66% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
18% over82% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
7% over93% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

NY
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jalen BrunsonPG
26.0
Karl-Anthony TownsC
24.4
OG AnunobyPF
18.0
Mikal BridgesSF
17.6
Josh HartSG
13.6
SA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Victor WembanyamaC
24.3
De'Aaron FoxPG
19.7
Devin VassellSG
16.3
Stephon CastleSG
14.7
Harrison BarnesPF
12.3
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