PHX96
FINAL
107LAL
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Phoenix Suns vs Los Angeles Lakers — Win Probability

FINAL
Phoenix Suns logo
Phoenix Suns
31-36
96
VS
Los Angeles Lakers logo
Los Angeles Lakers
40-25
107
Model expected score: Phoenix Suns 113.1 – Los Angeles Lakers 116.7 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

PHX
  • Jordan GoodwinOut
  • Mark WilliamsOut
LAL
  • Austin ReavesDay-To-Day
  • Quentin GrimesDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Lakers 62%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Lakers won by 11
COMBINED SCORE
203

Margin of Victory — Los Angeles Lakers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
40%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
17%
Won by 15-21
12%
Won by 21+
11%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 203.

O/U LINE 210
85% over15% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
70% over30% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
30% over70% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
15% over85% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
6% over94% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

PHX
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Kevin DurantPF
26.6
Devin BookerSG
25.6
Bradley BealSG
17.0
Tyus JonesPG
10.2
Nick RichardsC
9.5
LAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
28.2
Anthony DavisC
25.7
LeBron JamesSF
24.4
Austin ReavesSG
20.2
Rui HachimuraPF
13.1
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