CLE133
FINAL
124MEM
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Cleveland Cavaliers vs Memphis Grizzlies — Win Probability

FINAL
Cleveland Cavaliers logo
Cleveland Cavaliers
55-10
133
VS
Memphis Grizzlies logo
Memphis Grizzlies
42-24
124
Model expected score: Cleveland Cavaliers 120.6 – Memphis Grizzlies 118.9 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CLE
  • Sam MerrillDay-To-Day
  • Jaylon TysonOut
MEM
  • Isaiah StewartDay-To-Day
  • Quinten PostDay-To-Day
  • Scotty Pippen Jr.Out
  • Richie SaundersOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Cavaliers 59%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Cavaliers won by 9
COMBINED SCORE
257

Margin of Victory — Memphis Grizzlies (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
55%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
14%
Won by 15-21
8%
Won by 21+
5%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 257.

O/U LINE 210
94% over ✓6% under
O/U LINE 220
85% over ✓15% under
O/U LINE 230
69% over ✓31% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
49% over ✓51% under
O/U LINE 250
29% over ✓71% under
O/U LINE 260
14% over86% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CLE
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Donovan MitchellSG
24.0
Darius GarlandPG
20.6
Evan MobleyPF
18.5
Jarrett AllenC
13.5
Max StrusSF
9.4
MEM
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Ja MorantPG
23.2
Jaren Jackson Jr.C
22.2
Desmond BaneSG
19.2
Jaylen WellsSG
10.4
Scotty Pippen Jr.PG
9.9
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