CHI125
FINAL
123ORL
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Chicago Bulls vs Orlando Magic — Win Probability

FINAL
Chicago Bulls logo
Chicago Bulls
24-38
125
VS
Orlando Magic logo
Orlando Magic
29-33
123
Model expected score: Chicago Bulls 111.5 – Orlando Magic 115.3 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CHI
  • Norman PowellDay-To-Day
  • Zach CollinsDay-To-Day
ORL
  • Jalen SuggsOut
  • Jonathan IsaacOut
  • Paolo BancheroOut
  • Noah PendaOut
  • Izaiyah NelsonOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Magic 63%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Bulls won by 2
COMBINED SCORE
248

Margin of Victory — Orlando Magic (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
39%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21
12%
Won by 21+
11%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 248.

O/U LINE 210
81% over ✓19% under
O/U LINE 220
64% over ✓36% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
43% over ✓57% under
O/U LINE 240
24% over ✓76% under
O/U LINE 250
11% over89% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
4% over96% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Zach LaVineSF
24.0
Coby WhiteSG
20.4
Nikola VučevićC
18.5
Josh GiddeyPG
14.6
Kevin HuerterSG
13.2
ORL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Paolo BancheroPF
25.9
Franz WagnerSF
24.2
Jalen SuggsPG
16.2
Cole AnthonyPG
9.4
Wendell Carter Jr.C
9.1
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