LAC120
FINAL
127NO
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LA Clippers vs New Orleans Pelicans — Win Probability

FINAL
LA Clippers logo
LA Clippers
35-29
120
VS
New Orleans Pelicans logo
New Orleans Pelicans
17-48
127
Model expected score: LA Clippers 114.9 – New Orleans Pelicans 111.1 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

LAC
  • Cam ChristieOut
  • Yanic Konan NiederhauserOut
  • Brandon IngramOut
  • Bradley BealOut
  • Jordan MillerOut
NO
  • Trendon WatfordOut
  • Trey Murphy IIIDay-To-Day
  • Yves MissiOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Clippers 65%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Pelicans won by 7
COMBINED SCORE
247

Margin of Victory — New Orleans Pelicans (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
61%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
9%
Won by 8-14
12%
Won by 15-21
6%
Won by 21+
4%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 247.

O/U LINE 210
80% over ✓20% under
O/U LINE 220
62% over ✓38% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
41% over ✓59% under
O/U LINE 240
23% over ✓77% under
O/U LINE 250
10% over90% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
4% over96% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

LAC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
James HardenPG
22.8
Norman PowellSG
21.8
Kawhi LeonardSF
21.5
Ivica ZubacC
16.8
Derrick Jones Jr.SF
10.1
NO
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Zion WilliamsonPF
24.6
Brandon IngramSF
22.2
Trey Murphy IIISF
21.2
CJ McCollumPG
21.1
Dejounte MurrayPG
17.5
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