UTAH108
FINAL
114BOS
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Utah Jazz vs Boston Celtics — Win Probability

FINAL
Utah Jazz logo
Utah Jazz
15-49
108
VS
Boston Celtics logo
Boston Celtics
46-18
114
Model expected score: Utah Jazz 109.0 – Boston Celtics 122.4 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

UTAH
  • Keyonte GeorgeOut
  • Lauri MarkkanenDay-To-Day
  • Jusuf NurkicOut
  • Jaren Jackson Jr.Out
BOS
Nothing on the report.

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Celtics 88%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Celtics won by 6
COMBINED SCORE
222

Margin of Victory — Boston Celtics (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
17%
Won by 1-3
6%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
9%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
19%
Won by 21+
30%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 222.

O/U LINE 210
87% over ✓13% under
O/U LINE 220
73% over ✓27% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
53% over47% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
33% over67% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
16% over84% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
7% over93% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

UTAH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
John CollinsPF
19.0
Lauri MarkkanenPF
19.0
Collin SextonSG
18.4
Keyonte GeorgePG
16.8
Walker KesslerC
11.1
BOS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jayson TatumPF
26.8
Jaylen BrownSF
22.2
Kristaps PorziņģisC
19.5
Derrick WhiteSG
16.4
Jrue HolidayPG
11.1
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