LAL101
FINAL
111BOS
← back to predictions

Los Angeles Lakers vs Boston Celtics — Win Probability

FINAL
Los Angeles Lakers logo
Los Angeles Lakers
40-21
101
VS
Boston Celtics logo
Boston Celtics
45-18
111
Model expected score: Los Angeles Lakers 111.3 – Boston Celtics 116.3 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

LAL
  • Austin ReavesDay-To-Day
  • Quentin GrimesDay-To-Day
BOS
Nothing on the report.

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Celtics 67%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Celtics won by 10
COMBINED SCORE
212

Margin of Victory — Boston Celtics (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
36%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
18%
Won by 15-21
13%
Won by 21+
13%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 212.

O/U LINE 210
82% over ✓18% under
O/U LINE 220
65% over35% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
45% over55% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
26% over74% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
12% over88% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
4% over96% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

LAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
28.2
Anthony DavisC
25.7
LeBron JamesSF
24.4
Austin ReavesSG
20.2
Rui HachimuraPF
13.1
BOS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jayson TatumPF
26.8
Jaylen BrownSF
22.2
Kristaps PorziņģisC
19.5
Derrick WhiteSG
16.4
Jrue HolidayPG
11.1
Privacy PolicyTerms of Service