MIN106
FINAL
104MIA
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs Miami Heat — Win Probability

FINAL
Minnesota Timberwolves logo
Minnesota Timberwolves
35-29
106
VS
Miami Heat logo
Miami Heat
29-32
104
Model expected score: Minnesota Timberwolves 111.2 – Miami Heat 112.5 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIN
  • Anthony EdwardsOut
  • Donte DiVincenzoOut
MIA
  • Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Heat 56%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Timberwolves won by 2
COMBINED SCORE
210

Margin of Victory — Miami Heat (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
46%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
16%
Won by 15-21
10%
Won by 21+
8%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 210.

O/U LINE 210
76% over24% under ✓
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
58% over42% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
37% over63% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
20% over80% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
8% over92% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
3% over97% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Anthony EdwardsSG
27.6
Julius RandlePF
18.7
Jaden McDanielsPF
12.2
Rudy GobertC
12.0
Mike ConleyPG
8.2
MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyler HerroSG
23.9
Andrew WigginsSF
19.0
Bam AdebayoC
18.1
Jimmy ButlerPF
17.0
Duncan RobinsonSF
11.0
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