IND118
FINAL
124ATL
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Indiana Pacers vs Atlanta Hawks — Win Probability

FINAL
Indiana Pacers logo
Indiana Pacers
35-25
118
VS
Atlanta Hawks logo
Atlanta Hawks
27-33
124
Model expected score: Indiana Pacers 119.0 – Atlanta Hawks 117.7 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

IND
  • Tyrese HaliburtonOut
  • Johnny FurphyOut
  • Ben SheppardOut
ATL
  • Asa NewellOut
  • Keshon GilbertOut
  • Mouhamed GueyeOut
  • Henri VeesaarOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Pacers 56%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Hawks won by 6
COMBINED SCORE
242

Margin of Victory — Atlanta Hawks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
54%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
10%
Won by 8-14
14%
Won by 15-21
8%
Won by 21+
6%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 242.

O/U LINE 210
92% over ✓8% under
O/U LINE 220
81% over ✓19% under
O/U LINE 230
64% over ✓36% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
43% over ✓57% under
O/U LINE 250
24% over76% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
11% over89% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

IND
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Pascal SiakamPF
20.2
Tyrese HaliburtonPG
18.6
Bennedict MathurinSF
16.1
Myles TurnerC
15.6
Aaron NesmithSF
12.0
ATL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Trae YoungPG
24.2
Jalen JohnsonSF
18.9
Dyson DanielsSG
14.1
Onyeka OkongwuC
13.4
Zaccharie RisacherSF
12.6
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