NO115FINAL
136LAL
New Orleans Pelicans vs Los Angeles Lakers — Win Probability
FINAL
New Orleans Pelicans
17-44
115
VS
Los Angeles Lakers
38-21
136
Injury Report
Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.
NO
- Trendon WatfordDay-To-Day
- Trey Murphy IIIDay-To-Day
- Zion WilliamsonDay-To-Day
- Yves MissiOut
LAL
- Austin ReavesDay-To-Day
- Quentin GrimesDay-To-Day
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Lakers 80%
ACTUAL RESULT
Lakers won by 21
COMBINED SCORE
251
Margin of Victory — Los Angeles Lakers (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost
27%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
16%
Won by 21+
19%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 251.
O/U LINE 210
86% over ✓14% under
O/U LINE 220
71% over ✓29% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
51% over ✓49% under
O/U LINE 240
31% over ✓69% under
O/U LINE 250
15% over ✓85% under
O/U LINE 260
6% over94% under ✓
Starter Grades
Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.
NO
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Zion WilliamsonPF
24.6
Brandon IngramSF
22.2
Trey Murphy IIISF
21.2
CJ McCollumPG
21.1
Dejounte MurrayPG
17.5
LAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
28.2
Anthony DavisC
25.7
LeBron JamesSF
24.4
Austin ReavesSG
20.2
Rui HachimuraPF
13.1
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