OKC146FINAL
132SA
Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs — Win Probability
FINAL
Oklahoma City Thunder
46-11
146
VS
San Antonio Spurs
25-33
132
Injury Report
Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.
OKC
- Jaylin WilliamsOut
- Thomas SorberOut
- Cason WallaceOut
- Chet HolmgrenOut
- Jalen WilliamsOut
SA
- Devin VassellDay-To-Day
- Tobias HarrisOut
- Jayden QuaintanceOut
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Thunder 76%
ACTUAL RESULT
Thunder won by 14
COMBINED SCORE
278
Margin of Victory — San Antonio Spurs (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost ← actual result
70%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
7%
Won by 8-14
9%
Won by 15-21
4%
Won by 21+
2%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 278.
O/U LINE 210
82% over ✓18% under
O/U LINE 220
65% over ✓35% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
45% over ✓55% under
O/U LINE 240
26% over ✓74% under
O/U LINE 250
12% over ✓88% under
O/U LINE 260
4% over ✓96% under
Starter Grades
Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.
OKC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG
32.7
Jalen WilliamsSG
21.6
Chet HolmgrenC
15.0
Aaron WigginsSG
12.0
Isaiah HartensteinC
11.2
SA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Victor WembanyamaC
24.3
De'Aaron FoxPG
19.7
Devin VassellSG
16.3
Stephon CastleSG
14.7
Harrison BarnesPF
12.3
Follow Us