NY116FINAL
112MIA
New York Knicks vs Miami Heat — Win Probability
FINAL
New York Knicks
39-19
116
VS
Miami Heat
28-30
112
Injury Report
Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.
NY
- Josh HartDay-To-Day
MIA
- Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Heat 55%
ACTUAL RESULT
Knicks won by 4
COMBINED SCORE
228
Margin of Victory — Miami Heat (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost ← actual result
46%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
16%
Won by 15-21
10%
Won by 21+
8%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 228.
O/U LINE 210
83% over ✓17% under
O/U LINE 220
66% over ✓34% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
45% over55% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
26% over74% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
12% over88% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
5% over95% under ✓
Starter Grades
Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.
NY
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jalen BrunsonPG
26.0
Karl-Anthony TownsC
24.4
OG AnunobyPF
18.0
Mikal BridgesSF
17.6
Josh HartSG
13.6
MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyler HerroSG
23.9
Andrew WigginsSF
19.0
Bam AdebayoC
18.1
Jimmy ButlerPF
17.0
Duncan RobinsonSF
11.0
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