CHA96
FINAL
103DAL
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Charlotte Hornets vs Dallas Mavericks — Win Probability

FINAL
Charlotte Hornets logo
Charlotte Hornets
14-43
96
VS
Dallas Mavericks logo
Dallas Mavericks
31-27
103
Model expected score: Charlotte Hornets 106.1 – Dallas Mavericks 117.7 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CHA
  • Brandon MillerDay-To-Day
  • Moussa DiabateDay-To-Day
  • Grant WilliamsOut
  • Kon KnueppelOut
  • Dennis SchroderOut
DAL
  • Morez Johnson Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Sergio de LarreaOut
  • Tarik BiberovicOut
  • Dereck Lively IIOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Mavericks 84%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Mavericks won by 7
COMBINED SCORE
199

Margin of Victory — Dallas Mavericks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
21%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
10%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
18%
Won by 21+
25%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 199.

O/U LINE 210
77% over23% under ✓
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
58% over42% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
37% over63% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
20% over80% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
8% over92% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
3% over97% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CHA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
LaMelo BallPG
25.2
Brandon MillerSF
21.0
Miles BridgesPF
20.3
Mark WilliamsC
15.3
Grant WilliamsPF
10.4
DAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
28.1
Kyrie IrvingSG
24.7
Anthony DavisPF
20.0
P.J. WashingtonPF
14.7
Klay ThompsonSF
14.0
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