SA96FINAL
114NO
San Antonio Spurs vs New Orleans Pelicans — Win Probability
FINAL
San Antonio Spurs
24-30
96
VS
New Orleans Pelicans
13-43
114
Injury Report
Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.
SA
- Devin VassellDay-To-Day
- Tobias HarrisOut
- Jayden QuaintanceOut
NO
- Trendon WatfordDay-To-Day
- Trey Murphy IIIDay-To-Day
- Zion WilliamsonDay-To-Day
- Yves MissiOut
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Spurs 59%
ACTUAL RESULT
Pelicans won by 18
COMBINED SCORE
210
Margin of Victory — New Orleans Pelicans (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost
56%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
13%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
8%
Won by 21+
5%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 210.
O/U LINE 210
86% over14% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
72% over28% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
52% over48% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
32% over68% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
16% over84% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
6% over94% under ✓
Starter Grades
Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.
SA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Victor WembanyamaC
24.3
De'Aaron FoxPG
19.7
Devin VassellSG
16.3
Stephon CastleSG
14.7
Harrison BarnesPF
12.3
NO
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Zion WilliamsonPF
24.6
Brandon IngramSF
22.2
Trey Murphy IIISF
21.2
CJ McCollumPG
21.1
Dejounte MurrayPG
17.5
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