UTAH113
FINAL
132LAL
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Utah Jazz vs Los Angeles Lakers — Win Probability

FINAL
Utah Jazz logo
Utah Jazz
12-39
113
VS
Los Angeles Lakers logo
Los Angeles Lakers
31-19
132
Model expected score: Utah Jazz 110.9 – Los Angeles Lakers 121.0 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

UTAH
  • Keyonte GeorgeOut
  • Lauri MarkkanenDay-To-Day
  • Jusuf NurkicOut
  • Jaren Jackson Jr.Out
LAL
  • Austin ReavesDay-To-Day
  • Quentin GrimesDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Lakers 83%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Lakers won by 19
COMBINED SCORE
245

Margin of Victory — Los Angeles Lakers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
24%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
17%
Won by 21+
22%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 245.

O/U LINE 210
87% over ✓13% under
O/U LINE 220
73% over ✓27% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
54% over ✓46% under
O/U LINE 240
33% over ✓67% under
O/U LINE 250
17% over83% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
7% over93% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

UTAH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
John CollinsPF
19.0
Lauri MarkkanenPF
19.0
Collin SextonSG
18.4
Keyonte GeorgePG
16.8
Walker KesslerC
11.1
LAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
28.2
Anthony DavisC
25.7
LeBron JamesSF
24.4
Austin ReavesSG
20.2
Rui HachimuraPF
13.1
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