ATL112
FINAL
106ORL
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Atlanta Hawks vs Orlando Magic — Win Probability

FINAL
Atlanta Hawks logo
Atlanta Hawks
24-27
112
VS
Orlando Magic logo
Orlando Magic
26-27
106
Model expected score: Atlanta Hawks 111.8 – Orlando Magic 113.7 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

ATL
  • Asa NewellOut
  • Keshon GilbertOut
  • Mouhamed GueyeOut
  • Henri VeesaarOut
ORL
  • Jalen SuggsOut
  • Jonathan IsaacOut
  • Paolo BancheroOut
  • Noah PendaOut
  • Izaiyah NelsonOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Magic 57%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Hawks won by 6
COMBINED SCORE
218

Margin of Victory — Orlando Magic (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
45%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
16%
Won by 15-21
11%
Won by 21+
9%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 218.

O/U LINE 210
79% over ✓21% under
O/U LINE 220
61% over39% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
41% over59% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
22% over78% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
10% over90% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
3% over97% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

ATL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Trae YoungPG
24.2
Jalen JohnsonSF
18.9
Dyson DanielsSG
14.1
Onyeka OkongwuC
13.4
Zaccharie RisacherSF
12.6
ORL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Paolo BancheroPF
25.9
Franz WagnerSF
24.2
Jalen SuggsPG
16.2
Cole AnthonyPG
9.4
Wendell Carter Jr.C
9.1
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