GS128
FINAL
131UTAH
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Golden State Warriors vs Utah Jazz — Win Probability

FINAL
Golden State Warriors logo
Golden State Warriors
25-23
128
VS
Utah Jazz logo
Utah Jazz
11-37
131
Model expected score: Golden State Warriors 114.7 – Utah Jazz 113.2 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

GS
  • Gary Payton IIDay-To-Day
  • Brandon WilliamsDay-To-Day
  • Will RichardOut
  • Kristaps PorzingisOut
  • Moses MoodyOut
  • Jimmy Butler IIIOut
UTAH
  • Keyonte GeorgeOut
  • Lauri MarkkanenDay-To-Day
  • Jusuf NurkicOut
  • Jaren Jackson Jr.Out

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Warriors 56%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Jazz won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
259

Margin of Victory — Utah Jazz (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
54%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
14%
Won by 15-21
8%
Won by 21+
6%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 259.

O/U LINE 210
82% over ✓18% under
O/U LINE 220
66% over ✓34% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
46% over ✓54% under
O/U LINE 240
26% over ✓74% under
O/U LINE 250
12% over ✓88% under
O/U LINE 260
4% over96% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

GS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Stephen CurryPG
24.5
Jimmy ButlerSF
17.9
Andrew WigginsSF
17.6
Brandin PodziemskiSG
11.7
Buddy HieldSG
11.1
UTAH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
John CollinsPF
19.0
Lauri MarkkanenPF
19.0
Collin SextonSG
18.4
Keyonte GeorgePG
16.8
Walker KesslerC
11.1
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