DAL101
FINAL
144CLE
← back to predictions

Dallas Mavericks vs Cleveland Cavaliers — Win Probability

FINAL
Dallas Mavericks logo
Dallas Mavericks
26-22
101
VS
Cleveland Cavaliers logo
Cleveland Cavaliers
39-9
144
Model expected score: Dallas Mavericks 112.7 – Cleveland Cavaliers 121.3 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

DAL
  • Morez Johnson Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Sergio de LarreaOut
  • Tarik BiberovicOut
  • Dereck Lively IIOut
CLE
  • Sam MerrillDay-To-Day
  • Jaylon TysonOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Cavaliers 79%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Cavaliers won by 43
COMBINED SCORE
245

Margin of Victory — Cleveland Cavaliers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
27%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
16%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
19%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 245.

O/U LINE 210
90% over ✓10% under
O/U LINE 220
77% over ✓23% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
58% over ✓42% under
O/U LINE 240
38% over ✓62% under
O/U LINE 250
20% over80% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
8% over92% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

DAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
28.1
Kyrie IrvingSG
24.7
Anthony DavisPF
20.0
P.J. WashingtonPF
14.7
Klay ThompsonSF
14.0
CLE
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Donovan MitchellSG
24.0
Darius GarlandPG
20.6
Evan MobleyPF
18.5
Jarrett AllenC
13.5
Max StrusSF
9.4
Privacy PolicyTerms of Service