OKC109FINAL
116GS
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Golden State Warriors — Win Probability
FINAL
Oklahoma City Thunder
35-8
109
VS
Golden State Warriors
23-22
116
Injury Report
Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.
OKC
- Jaylin WilliamsOut
- Thomas SorberOut
- Cason WallaceOut
- Chet HolmgrenOut
- Jalen WilliamsOut
GS
- Gary Payton IIDay-To-Day
- Brandon WilliamsDay-To-Day
- Will RichardOut
- Kristaps PorzingisOut
- Moses MoodyOut
- Jimmy Butler IIIOut
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Thunder 69%
ACTUAL RESULT
Warriors won by 7
COMBINED SCORE
225
Margin of Victory — Golden State Warriors (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost
64%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
9%
Won by 8-14
11%
Won by 15-21
6%
Won by 21+
3%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 225.
O/U LINE 210
76% over ✓24% under
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
58% over ✓42% under
O/U LINE 230
37% over63% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
20% over80% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
8% over92% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
3% over97% under ✓
Starter Grades
Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.
OKC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG
32.7
Jalen WilliamsSG
21.6
Chet HolmgrenC
15.0
Aaron WigginsSG
12.0
Isaiah HartensteinC
11.2
GS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Stephen CurryPG
24.5
Jimmy ButlerSF
17.9
Andrew WigginsSF
17.6
Brandin PodziemskiSG
11.7
Buddy HieldSG
11.1
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