DEN121
FINAL
129CHI
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Denver Nuggets vs Chicago Bulls — Win Probability

FINAL
Denver Nuggets logo
Denver Nuggets
28-17
121
VS
Chicago Bulls logo
Chicago Bulls
19-27
129
Model expected score: Denver Nuggets 121.5 – Chicago Bulls 117.7 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

DEN
  • Julian StrawtherOut
CHI
  • Norman PowellDay-To-Day
  • Zach CollinsDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Nuggets 63%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Bulls won by 8
COMBINED SCORE
250

Margin of Victory — Chicago Bulls (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
61%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
12%
Won by 15-21
6%
Won by 21+
4%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 250.

O/U LINE 210
94% over ✓6% under
O/U LINE 220
84% over ✓16% under
O/U LINE 230
69% over ✓31% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
48% over ✓52% under
O/U LINE 250
29% over71% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
14% over86% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

DEN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Nikola JokićC
29.6
Jamal MurrayPG
21.4
Michael Porter Jr.SF
18.2
Christian BraunSG
15.4
Aaron GordonPF
14.7
CHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Zach LaVineSF
24.0
Coby WhiteSG
20.4
Nikola VučevićC
18.5
Josh GiddeyPG
14.6
Kevin HuerterSG
13.2
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