CLE129
FINAL
132PHI
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Cleveland Cavaliers vs Philadelphia 76ers — Win Probability

FINAL
Cleveland Cavaliers logo
Cleveland Cavaliers
36-7
129
VS
Philadelphia 76ers logo
Philadelphia 76ers
15-27
132
Model expected score: Cleveland Cavaliers 117.7 – Philadelphia 76ers 109.9 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CLE
  • Sam MerrillDay-To-Day
  • Jaylon TysonOut
PHI
  • Adem BonaOut
  • Dominick BarlowOut
  • Ariel HukportiOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Cavaliers 76%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ 76ers won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
261

Margin of Victory — Philadelphia 76ers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
71%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
7%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14
9%
Won by 15-21
4%
Won by 21+
2%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 261.

O/U LINE 210
82% over ✓18% under
O/U LINE 220
65% over ✓35% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
45% over ✓55% under
O/U LINE 240
26% over ✓74% under
O/U LINE 250
12% over ✓88% under
O/U LINE 260
5% over ✓95% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CLE
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Donovan MitchellSG
24.0
Darius GarlandPG
20.6
Evan MobleyPF
18.5
Jarrett AllenC
13.5
Max StrusSF
9.4
PHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyrese MaxeyPG
26.3
Joel EmbiidC
23.8
Quentin GrimesSG
21.9
Paul GeorgePF
16.2
Jared McCainSG
15.3
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