BOS96
FINAL
117LAL
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Boston Celtics vs Los Angeles Lakers — Win Probability

FINAL
Boston Celtics logo
Boston Celtics
31-13
96
VS
Los Angeles Lakers logo
Los Angeles Lakers
23-18
117
Model expected score: Boston Celtics 115.6 – Los Angeles Lakers 111.8 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

BOS
Nothing on the report.
LAL
  • Austin ReavesDay-To-Day
  • Quentin GrimesDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Celtics 61%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Lakers won by 21
COMBINED SCORE
213

Margin of Victory — Los Angeles Lakers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
61%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14
12%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
6%
Won by 21+
4%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 213.

O/U LINE 210
82% over ✓18% under
O/U LINE 220
65% over35% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
45% over55% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
25% over75% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
12% over88% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
4% over96% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

BOS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jayson TatumPF
26.8
Jaylen BrownSF
22.2
Kristaps PorziņģisC
19.5
Derrick WhiteSG
16.4
Jrue HolidayPG
11.1
LAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
28.2
Anthony DavisC
25.7
LeBron JamesSF
24.4
Austin ReavesSG
20.2
Rui HachimuraPF
13.1
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