CHI106
FINAL
131GS
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Chicago Bulls vs Golden State Warriors — Win Probability

FINAL
Chicago Bulls logo
Chicago Bulls
19-25
106
VS
Golden State Warriors logo
Golden State Warriors
21-21
131
Model expected score: Chicago Bulls 114.8 – Golden State Warriors 117.5 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CHI
  • Norman PowellDay-To-Day
  • Zach CollinsDay-To-Day
GS
  • Gary Payton IIDay-To-Day
  • Brandon WilliamsDay-To-Day
  • Will RichardOut
  • Kristaps PorzingisOut
  • Moses MoodyOut
  • Jimmy Butler IIIOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Warriors 58%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Warriors won by 25
COMBINED SCORE
237

Margin of Victory — Golden State Warriors (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
42%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21
11%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
10%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 237.

O/U LINE 210
88% over ✓12% under
O/U LINE 220
74% over ✓26% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
55% over ✓45% under
O/U LINE 240
34% over66% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
18% over82% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
7% over93% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Zach LaVineSF
24.0
Coby WhiteSG
20.4
Nikola VučevićC
18.5
Josh GiddeyPG
14.6
Kevin HuerterSG
13.2
GS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Stephen CurryPG
24.5
Jimmy ButlerSF
17.9
Andrew WigginsSF
17.6
Brandin PodziemskiSG
11.7
Buddy HieldSG
11.1
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