MIA96FINAL
125MIL
Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks — Win Probability
FINAL
Miami Heat
21-21
96
VS
Milwaukee Bucks
22-17
125
Injury Report
Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.
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- Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day
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- Tyler HerroDay-To-Day
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Bucks 73%
ACTUAL RESULT
Bucks won by 29
COMBINED SCORE
221
Margin of Victory — Milwaukee Bucks (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost
33%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
14%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
15%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 221.
O/U LINE 210
78% over ✓22% under
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
60% over ✓40% under
O/U LINE 230
40% over60% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
21% over79% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
9% over91% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
3% over97% under ✓
Starter Grades
Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.
MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyler HerroSG
23.9
Andrew WigginsSF
19.0
Bam AdebayoC
18.1
Jimmy ButlerPF
17.0
Duncan RobinsonSF
11.0
MIL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
30.4
Damian LillardPG
24.9
Kyle KuzmaPF
14.5
Brook LopezC
13.0
Khris MiddletonSF
12.6
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