WSH88
FINAL
111LAL
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Washington Wizards vs Los Angeles Lakers — Win Probability

FINAL
Washington Wizards logo
Washington Wizards
6-35
88
VS
Los Angeles Lakers logo
Los Angeles Lakers
22-18
111
Model expected score: Washington Wizards 110.1 – Los Angeles Lakers 120.1 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

WSH
  • Bilal CoulibalyDay-To-Day
  • Tristan VukcevicOut
  • Reece BeekmanOut
  • Justin ChampagnieOut
  • Jamir WatkinsOut
LAL
  • Austin ReavesDay-To-Day
  • Quentin GrimesDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Lakers 82%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Lakers won by 23
COMBINED SCORE
199

Margin of Victory — Los Angeles Lakers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
24%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
17%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
22%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 199.

O/U LINE 210
86% over14% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
70% over30% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
51% over49% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
30% over70% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
15% over85% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
6% over94% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

WSH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jordan PooleSG
20.5
Kyle KuzmaPF
15.2
Alex SarrC
13.0
Malcolm BrogdonPG
12.7
Bilal CoulibalySF
12.3
LAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
28.2
Anthony DavisC
25.7
LeBron JamesSF
24.4
Austin ReavesSG
20.2
Rui HachimuraPF
13.1
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