ORL94
FINAL
121BOS
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Orlando Magic vs Boston Celtics — Win Probability

FINAL
Orlando Magic logo
Orlando Magic
23-18
94
VS
Boston Celtics logo
Boston Celtics
28-12
121
Model expected score: Orlando Magic 105.3 – Boston Celtics 112.1 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

ORL
  • Jalen SuggsOut
  • Jonathan IsaacOut
  • Paolo BancheroOut
  • Noah PendaOut
  • Izaiyah NelsonOut
BOS
Nothing on the report.

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Celtics 72%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Celtics won by 27
COMBINED SCORE
215

Margin of Victory — Boston Celtics (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
32%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
15%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
16%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 215.

O/U LINE 210
65% over ✓35% under
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
44% over56% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
25% over75% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
12% over88% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
4% over96% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
1% over99% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

ORL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Paolo BancheroPF
25.9
Franz WagnerSF
24.2
Jalen SuggsPG
16.2
Cole AnthonyPG
9.4
Wendell Carter Jr.C
9.1
BOS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jayson TatumPF
26.8
Jaylen BrownSF
22.2
Kristaps PorziņģisC
19.5
Derrick WhiteSG
16.4
Jrue HolidayPG
11.1
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