HOU128
FINAL
108DEN
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Houston Rockets vs Denver Nuggets — Win Probability

FINAL
Houston Rockets logo
Houston Rockets
25-11
128
VS
Denver Nuggets logo
Denver Nuggets
24-15
108
Model expected score: Houston Rockets 113.9 – Denver Nuggets 117.0 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

HOU
  • Oscar TshiebweDay-To-Day
  • Clint CapelaOut
  • Steven AdamsOut
DEN
  • Julian StrawtherOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Nuggets 61%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Rockets won by 20
COMBINED SCORE
236

Margin of Victory — Denver Nuggets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
41%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21
12%
Won by 21+
10%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 236.

O/U LINE 210
86% over ✓14% under
O/U LINE 220
72% over ✓28% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
52% over ✓48% under
O/U LINE 240
32% over68% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
16% over84% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
6% over94% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

HOU
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jalen GreenSG
21.0
Alperen ŞengünC
19.1
Amen ThompsonSF
14.1
Fred VanVleetPG
14.1
Dillon BrooksSF
14.0
DEN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Nikola JokićC
29.6
Jamal MurrayPG
21.4
Michael Porter Jr.SF
18.2
Christian BraunSG
15.4
Aaron GordonPF
14.7
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