BOS97
FINAL
110TOR
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Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors — Win Probability

FINAL
Boston Celtics logo
Boston Celtics
28-11
97
VS
Toronto Raptors logo
Toronto Raptors
9-31
110
Model expected score: Boston Celtics 118.8 – Toronto Raptors 111.2 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

BOS
Nothing on the report.
TOR
  • Immanuel QuickleyDay-To-Day
  • Collin Murray-BoylesDay-To-Day
  • Scottie BarnesDay-To-Day
  • Nate BittleOut
  • Kawhi LeonardOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Celtics 76%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Raptors won by 13
COMBINED SCORE
207

Margin of Victory — Toronto Raptors (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
70%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
9%
Won by 15-21
4%
Won by 21+
2%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 207.

O/U LINE 210
85% over15% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
70% over30% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
30% over70% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
15% over85% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
6% over94% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

BOS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jayson TatumPF
26.8
Jaylen BrownSF
22.2
Kristaps PorziņģisC
19.5
Derrick WhiteSG
16.4
Jrue HolidayPG
11.1
TOR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
RJ BarrettSF
21.1
Scottie BarnesPF
19.3
Immanuel QuickleyPG
17.1
Jakob PoeltlC
14.5
Gradey DickSG
14.4
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