NO119
FINAL
113CHI
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New Orleans Pelicans vs Chicago Bulls — Win Probability

FINAL
New Orleans Pelicans logo
New Orleans Pelicans
8-32
119
VS
Chicago Bulls logo
Chicago Bulls
18-21
113
Model expected score: New Orleans Pelicans 113.5 – Chicago Bulls 121.5 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

NO
  • Trendon WatfordDay-To-Day
  • Trey Murphy IIIDay-To-Day
  • Zion WilliamsonDay-To-Day
  • Yves MissiOut
CHI
  • Norman PowellDay-To-Day
  • Zach CollinsDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Bulls 77%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Pelicans won by 6
COMBINED SCORE
232

Margin of Victory — Chicago Bulls (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
29%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
15%
Won by 21+
18%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 232.

O/U LINE 210
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 220
78% over ✓22% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
60% over ✓40% under
O/U LINE 240
40% over60% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
21% over79% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
9% over91% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

NO
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Zion WilliamsonPF
24.6
Brandon IngramSF
22.2
Trey Murphy IIISF
21.2
CJ McCollumPG
21.1
Dejounte MurrayPG
17.5
CHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Zach LaVineSF
24.0
Coby WhiteSG
20.4
Nikola VučevićC
18.5
Josh GiddeyPG
14.6
Kevin HuerterSG
13.2
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