GS101
FINAL
104TOR
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Golden State Warriors vs Toronto Raptors — Win Probability

FINAL
Golden State Warriors logo
Golden State Warriors
19-18
101
VS
Toronto Raptors logo
Toronto Raptors
8-31
104
Model expected score: Golden State Warriors 114.8 – Toronto Raptors 112.6 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

GS
  • Gary Payton IIDay-To-Day
  • Brandon WilliamsDay-To-Day
  • Will RichardOut
  • Kristaps PorzingisOut
  • Moses MoodyOut
  • Jimmy Butler IIIOut
TOR
  • Immanuel QuickleyDay-To-Day
  • Collin Murray-BoylesDay-To-Day
  • Scottie BarnesDay-To-Day
  • Nate BittleOut
  • Kawhi LeonardOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Warriors 61%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Raptors won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
205

Margin of Victory — Toronto Raptors (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
56%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
13%
Won by 15-21
8%
Won by 21+
5%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 205.

O/U LINE 210
82% over18% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
65% over35% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
45% over55% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
26% over74% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
12% over88% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
4% over96% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

GS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Stephen CurryPG
24.5
Jimmy ButlerSF
17.9
Andrew WigginsSF
17.6
Brandin PodziemskiSG
11.7
Buddy HieldSG
11.1
TOR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
RJ BarrettSF
21.1
Scottie BarnesPF
19.3
Immanuel QuickleyPG
17.1
Jakob PoeltlC
14.5
Gradey DickSG
14.4
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