BKN111
FINAL
112UTAH
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Brooklyn Nets vs Utah Jazz — Win Probability

FINAL
Brooklyn Nets logo
Brooklyn Nets
13-25
111
VS
Utah Jazz logo
Utah Jazz
9-28
112
Model expected score: Brooklyn Nets 110.8 – Utah Jazz 115.7 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

BKN
  • Mikel Brown Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Grant NelsonDay-To-Day
  • Egor DeminOut
UTAH
  • Keyonte GeorgeOut
  • Lauri MarkkanenDay-To-Day
  • Jusuf NurkicOut
  • Jaren Jackson Jr.Out

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Jazz 64%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Jazz won by 1
COMBINED SCORE
223

Margin of Victory — Utah Jazz (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
37%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
13%
Won by 21+
13%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 223.

O/U LINE 210
81% over ✓19% under
O/U LINE 220
63% over ✓37% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
43% over57% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
24% over76% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
11% over89% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
4% over96% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

BKN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cam ThomasSG
24.0
Cameron JohnsonPF
18.8
Dennis SchröderPG
18.4
D'Angelo RussellPG
12.9
Keon JohnsonSG
10.6
UTAH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
John CollinsPF
19.0
Lauri MarkkanenPF
19.0
Collin SextonSG
18.4
Keyonte GeorgePG
16.8
Walker KesslerC
11.1
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