MIA119
FINAL
98POR
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Miami Heat vs Portland Trail Blazers — Win Probability

FINAL
Miami Heat logo
Miami Heat
19-17
119
VS
Portland Trail Blazers logo
Portland Trail Blazers
13-24
98
Model expected score: Miami Heat 112.5 – Portland Trail Blazers 111.9 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIA
  • Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day
POR
  • Ja MorantOut
  • Vit KrejciOut
  • Shaedon SharpeOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Heat 53%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Heat won by 21
COMBINED SCORE
217

Margin of Victory — Portland Trail Blazers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
52%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
14%
Won by 15-21
9%
Won by 21+
6%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 217.

O/U LINE 210
77% over ✓23% under
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
59% over41% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
38% over62% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
21% over79% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
9% over91% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
3% over97% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyler HerroSG
23.9
Andrew WigginsSF
19.0
Bam AdebayoC
18.1
Jimmy ButlerPF
17.0
Duncan RobinsonSF
11.0
POR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Anfernee SimonsSG
19.3
Shaedon SharpeSG
18.5
Deni AvdijaSF
16.9
Deandre AytonC
14.4
Jerami GrantPF
14.4
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