MEM127
FINAL
125MIN
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Memphis Grizzlies vs Minnesota Timberwolves — Win Probability

FINAL
Memphis Grizzlies logo
Memphis Grizzlies
24-14
127
VS
Minnesota Timberwolves logo
Minnesota Timberwolves
20-17
125
Model expected score: Memphis Grizzlies 115.2 – Minnesota Timberwolves 114.5 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MEM
  • Isaiah StewartDay-To-Day
  • Quinten PostDay-To-Day
  • Scotty Pippen Jr.Out
  • Richie SaundersOut
MIN
  • Anthony EdwardsOut
  • Donte DiVincenzoOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Grizzlies 50%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Grizzlies won by 2
COMBINED SCORE
252

Margin of Victory — Minnesota Timberwolves (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
52%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
14%
Won by 15-21
9%
Won by 21+
6%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 252.

O/U LINE 210
85% over ✓15% under
O/U LINE 220
69% over ✓31% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
49% over ✓51% under
O/U LINE 240
29% over ✓71% under
O/U LINE 250
14% over ✓86% under
O/U LINE 260
6% over94% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MEM
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Ja MorantPG
23.2
Jaren Jackson Jr.C
22.2
Desmond BaneSG
19.2
Jaylen WellsSG
10.4
Scotty Pippen Jr.PG
9.9
MIN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Anthony EdwardsSG
27.6
Julius RandlePF
18.7
Jaden McDanielsPF
12.2
Rudy GobertC
12.0
Mike ConleyPG
8.2
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