MIN104
FINAL
97NO
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans — Win Probability

FINAL
Minnesota Timberwolves logo
Minnesota Timberwolves
18-17
104
VS
New Orleans Pelicans logo
New Orleans Pelicans
7-29
97
Model expected score: Minnesota Timberwolves 112.7 – New Orleans Pelicans 110.1 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIN
  • Anthony EdwardsOut
  • Donte DiVincenzoOut
NO
  • Trendon WatfordOut
  • Trey Murphy IIIDay-To-Day
  • Yves MissiOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Timberwolves 60%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Timberwolves won by 7
COMBINED SCORE
201

Margin of Victory — New Orleans Pelicans (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
57%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
13%
Won by 15-21
7%
Won by 21+
5%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 201.

O/U LINE 210
75% over25% under ✓
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
56% over44% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
35% over65% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
18% over82% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
8% over92% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
3% over97% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Anthony EdwardsSG
27.6
Julius RandlePF
18.7
Jaden McDanielsPF
12.2
Rudy GobertC
12.0
Mike ConleyPG
8.2
NO
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Zion WilliamsonPF
24.6
Brandon IngramSF
22.2
Trey Murphy IIISF
21.2
CJ McCollumPG
21.1
Dejounte MurrayPG
17.5
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