LAL97
FINAL
118DAL
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Los Angeles Lakers vs Dallas Mavericks — Win Probability

FINAL
Los Angeles Lakers logo
Los Angeles Lakers
20-15
97
VS
Dallas Mavericks logo
Dallas Mavericks
20-15
118
Model expected score: Los Angeles Lakers 113.0 – Dallas Mavericks 116.2 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

LAL
  • Quentin GrimesDay-To-Day
DAL
  • Morez Johnson Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Sergio de LarreaOut
  • Tarik BiberovicOut
  • Dereck Lively IIOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Mavericks 59%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Mavericks won by 21
COMBINED SCORE
215

Margin of Victory — Dallas Mavericks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
41%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
12%
Won by 21+
11%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 215.

O/U LINE 210
84% over ✓16% under
O/U LINE 220
69% over31% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
48% over52% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
29% over71% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
14% over86% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
5% over95% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

LAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
28.2
Anthony DavisC
25.7
LeBron JamesSF
24.4
Austin ReavesSG
20.2
Rui HachimuraPF
13.1
DAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
28.1
Kyrie IrvingSG
24.7
Anthony DavisPF
20.0
P.J. WashingtonPF
14.7
Klay ThompsonSF
14.0
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