ATL105
FINAL
131LAC
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Atlanta Hawks vs LA Clippers — Win Probability

FINAL
Atlanta Hawks logo
Atlanta Hawks
17-16
105
VS
LA Clippers logo
LA Clippers
19-15
131
Model expected score: Atlanta Hawks 113.0 – LA Clippers 115.7 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

ATL
  • Asa NewellOut
  • Keshon GilbertOut
  • Mouhamed GueyeOut
  • Henri VeesaarOut
LAC
  • Yanic Konan NiederhauserOut
  • Brandon IngramOut
  • Cam ChristieDay-To-Day
  • Bradley BealOut
  • Jordan MillerOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Clippers 62%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Clippers won by 26
COMBINED SCORE
236

Margin of Victory — LA Clippers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
42%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21
11%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
10%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 236.

O/U LINE 210
84% over ✓16% under
O/U LINE 220
68% over ✓32% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
47% over ✓53% under
O/U LINE 240
28% over72% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
13% over87% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
5% over95% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

ATL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Trae YoungPG
24.2
Jalen JohnsonSF
18.9
Dyson DanielsSG
14.1
Onyeka OkongwuC
13.4
Zaccharie RisacherSF
12.6
LAC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
James HardenPG
22.8
Norman PowellSG
21.8
Kawhi LeonardSF
21.5
Ivica ZubacC
16.8
Derrick Jones Jr.SF
10.1
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