ATL120
FINAL
139DEN
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Atlanta Hawks vs Denver Nuggets — Win Probability

FINAL
Atlanta Hawks logo
Atlanta Hawks
17-14
120
VS
Denver Nuggets logo
Denver Nuggets
18-13
139
Model expected score: Atlanta Hawks 118.5 – Denver Nuggets 122.5 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

ATL
  • Asa NewellOut
  • Keshon GilbertOut
  • Mouhamed GueyeOut
  • Henri VeesaarOut
DEN
  • Julian StrawtherOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Nuggets 63%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Nuggets won by 19
COMBINED SCORE
259

Margin of Victory — Denver Nuggets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
39%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
12%
Won by 21+
11%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 259.

O/U LINE 210
95% over ✓5% under
O/U LINE 220
87% over ✓13% under
O/U LINE 230
72% over ✓28% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
52% over ✓48% under
O/U LINE 250
32% over ✓68% under
O/U LINE 260
16% over84% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

ATL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Trae YoungPG
24.2
Jalen JohnsonSF
18.9
Dyson DanielsSG
14.1
Onyeka OkongwuC
13.4
Zaccharie RisacherSF
12.6
DEN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Nikola JokićC
29.6
Jamal MurrayPG
21.4
Michael Porter Jr.SF
18.2
Christian BraunSG
15.4
Aaron GordonPF
14.7
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