NO108FINAL
119MIA
New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat — Win Probability
FINAL
New Orleans Pelicans
5-28
108
VS
Miami Heat
16-14
119
Injury Report
Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.
NO
- Trendon WatfordDay-To-Day
- Trey Murphy IIIDay-To-Day
- Zion WilliamsonDay-To-Day
- Yves MissiOut
MIA
- Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Heat 84%
ACTUAL RESULT
Heat won by 11
COMBINED SCORE
227
Margin of Victory — Miami Heat (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost
22%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
20%
Won by 15-21
17%
Won by 21+
24%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 227.
O/U LINE 210
78% over ✓22% under
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
59% over ✓41% under
O/U LINE 230
39% over61% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
21% over79% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
9% over91% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
3% over97% under ✓
Starter Grades
Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.
NO
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Zion WilliamsonPF
24.6
Brandon IngramSF
22.2
Trey Murphy IIISF
21.2
CJ McCollumPG
21.1
Dejounte MurrayPG
17.5
MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyler HerroSG
23.9
Andrew WigginsSF
19.0
Bam AdebayoC
18.1
Jimmy ButlerPF
17.0
Duncan RobinsonSF
11.0
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