SA110
FINAL
112MIN
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San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves — Win Probability

FINAL
San Antonio Spurs logo
San Antonio Spurs
16-15
110
VS
Minnesota Timberwolves logo
Minnesota Timberwolves
16-14
112
Model expected score: San Antonio Spurs 110.0 – Minnesota Timberwolves 112.1 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

SA
  • Devin VassellDay-To-Day
  • Tobias HarrisOut
  • Jayden QuaintanceOut
MIN
  • Anthony EdwardsOut
  • Donte DiVincenzoOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Timberwolves 58%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Timberwolves won by 2
COMBINED SCORE
222

Margin of Victory — Minnesota Timberwolves (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
44%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
16%
Won by 15-21
11%
Won by 21+
9%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 222.

O/U LINE 210
74% over ✓26% under
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
55% over ✓45% under
O/U LINE 230
34% over66% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
17% over83% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
7% over93% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
2% over98% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

SA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Victor WembanyamaC
24.3
De'Aaron FoxPG
19.7
Devin VassellSG
16.3
Stephon CastleSG
14.7
Harrison BarnesPF
12.3
MIN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Anthony EdwardsSG
27.6
Julius RandlePF
18.7
Jaden McDanielsPF
12.2
Rudy GobertC
12.0
Mike ConleyPG
8.2
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