CLE149
FINAL
135DEN
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Cleveland Cavaliers vs Denver Nuggets — Win Probability

FINAL
Cleveland Cavaliers logo
Cleveland Cavaliers
26-4
149
VS
Denver Nuggets logo
Denver Nuggets
16-12
135
Model expected score: Cleveland Cavaliers 121.0 – Denver Nuggets 116.4 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CLE
  • Sam MerrillDay-To-Day
  • Jaylon TysonOut
DEN
  • Julian StrawtherOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Cavaliers 68%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Cavaliers won by 14
COMBINED SCORE
284

Margin of Victory — Denver Nuggets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
63%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14
11%
Won by 15-21
6%
Won by 21+
3%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 284.

O/U LINE 210
92% over ✓8% under
O/U LINE 220
82% over ✓18% under
O/U LINE 230
65% over ✓35% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
45% over ✓55% under
O/U LINE 250
26% over ✓74% under
O/U LINE 260
12% over ✓88% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CLE
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Donovan MitchellSG
24.0
Darius GarlandPG
20.6
Evan MobleyPF
18.5
Jarrett AllenC
13.5
Max StrusSF
9.4
DEN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Nikola JokićC
29.6
Jamal MurrayPG
21.4
Michael Porter Jr.SF
18.2
Christian BraunSG
15.4
Aaron GordonPF
14.7
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