HOU128
FINAL
111NO
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Houston Rockets vs New Orleans Pelicans — Win Probability

FINAL
Houston Rockets logo
Houston Rockets
19-8
128
VS
New Orleans Pelicans logo
New Orleans Pelicans
5-25
111
Model expected score: Houston Rockets 115.2 – New Orleans Pelicans 107.2 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

HOU
  • Oscar TshiebweDay-To-Day
  • Clint CapelaOut
  • Steven AdamsOut
NO
  • Trendon WatfordDay-To-Day
  • Trey Murphy IIIDay-To-Day
  • Zion WilliamsonDay-To-Day
  • Yves MissiOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Rockets 75%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Rockets won by 17
COMBINED SCORE
239

Margin of Victory — New Orleans Pelicans (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
71%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
7%
Won by 8-14
8%
Won by 15-21
4%
Won by 21+
2%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 239.

O/U LINE 210
74% over ✓26% under
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
55% over ✓45% under
O/U LINE 230
34% over ✓66% under
O/U LINE 240
18% over82% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
7% over93% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
3% over97% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

HOU
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jalen GreenSG
21.0
Alperen ŞengünC
19.1
Amen ThompsonSF
14.1
Fred VanVleetPG
14.1
Dillon BrooksSF
14.0
NO
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Zion WilliamsonPF
24.6
Brandon IngramSF
22.2
Trey Murphy IIISF
21.2
CJ McCollumPG
21.1
Dejounte MurrayPG
17.5
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