NO116FINAL
121SA
New Orleans Pelicans vs San Antonio Spurs — Win Probability
FINAL
New Orleans Pelicans
5-19
116
VS
San Antonio Spurs
11-12
121
Injury Report
Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.
NO
- Trendon WatfordDay-To-Day
- Trey Murphy IIIDay-To-Day
- Zion WilliamsonDay-To-Day
- Yves MissiOut
SA
- Devin VassellDay-To-Day
- Tobias HarrisOut
- Jayden QuaintanceOut
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Spurs 79%
ACTUAL RESULT
Spurs won by 5
COMBINED SCORE
237
Margin of Victory — San Antonio Spurs (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost
28%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
16%
Won by 21+
19%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 237.
O/U LINE 210
75% over ✓25% under
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
57% over ✓43% under
O/U LINE 230
36% over ✓64% under
O/U LINE 240
19% over81% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
8% over92% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
3% over97% under ✓
Starter Grades
Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.
NO
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Zion WilliamsonPF
24.6
Brandon IngramSF
22.2
Trey Murphy IIISF
21.2
CJ McCollumPG
21.1
Dejounte MurrayPG
17.5
SA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Victor WembanyamaC
24.3
De'Aaron FoxPG
19.7
Devin VassellSG
16.3
Stephon CastleSG
14.7
Harrison BarnesPF
12.3
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