MEM140
FINAL
112WSH
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Memphis Grizzlies vs Washington Wizards — Win Probability

FINAL
Memphis Grizzlies logo
Memphis Grizzlies
16-8
140
VS
Washington Wizards logo
Washington Wizards
3-18
112
Model expected score: Memphis Grizzlies 123.5 – Washington Wizards 110.8 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MEM
  • Isaiah StewartDay-To-Day
  • Quinten PostDay-To-Day
  • Scotty Pippen Jr.Out
  • Richie SaundersOut
WSH
  • Bilal CoulibalyDay-To-Day
  • Tristan VukcevicOut
  • Reece BeekmanOut
  • Justin ChampagnieOut
  • Jamir WatkinsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Grizzlies 86%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Grizzlies won by 28
COMBINED SCORE
252

Margin of Victory — Washington Wizards (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
81%
Won by 1-3
5%
Won by 4-7
5%
Won by 8-14
5%
Won by 15-21
2%
Won by 21+
1%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 252.

O/U LINE 210
90% over ✓10% under
O/U LINE 220
77% over ✓23% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
59% over ✓41% under
O/U LINE 240
38% over ✓62% under
O/U LINE 250
21% over ✓79% under
O/U LINE 260
9% over91% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MEM
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Ja MorantPG
23.2
Jaren Jackson Jr.C
22.2
Desmond BaneSG
19.2
Jaylen WellsSG
10.4
Scotty Pippen Jr.PG
9.9
WSH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jordan PooleSG
20.5
Kyle KuzmaPF
15.2
Alex SarrC
13.0
Malcolm BrogdonPG
12.7
Bilal CoulibalySF
12.3
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