CLE113FINAL
122MIA
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat — Win Probability
FINAL
Cleveland Cavaliers
21-3
113
VS
Miami Heat
11-10
122
Injury Report
Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.
CLE
- Sam MerrillDay-To-Day
- Jaylon TysonOut
MIA
- Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Cavaliers 60%
ACTUAL RESULT
Heat won by 9
COMBINED SCORE
235
Margin of Victory — Miami Heat (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost
56%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
13%
Won by 15-21
8%
Won by 21+
5%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 235.
O/U LINE 210
85% over ✓15% under
O/U LINE 220
69% over ✓31% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
49% over ✓51% under
O/U LINE 240
29% over71% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
14% over86% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
6% over94% under ✓
Starter Grades
Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.
CLE
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Donovan MitchellSG
24.0
Darius GarlandPG
20.6
Evan MobleyPF
18.5
Jarrett AllenC
13.5
Max StrusSF
9.4
MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyler HerroSG
23.9
Andrew WigginsSF
19.0
Bam AdebayoC
18.1
Jimmy ButlerPF
17.0
Duncan RobinsonSF
11.0
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