OKC119FINAL
109NO
Oklahoma City Thunder vs New Orleans Pelicans — Win Probability
FINAL
Oklahoma City Thunder
17-5
119
VS
New Orleans Pelicans
5-18
109
Injury Report
Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.
OKC
- Jaylin WilliamsOut
- Thomas SorberOut
- Cason WallaceOut
- Chet HolmgrenOut
- Jalen WilliamsOut
NO
- Trendon WatfordDay-To-Day
- Trey Murphy IIIDay-To-Day
- Zion WilliamsonDay-To-Day
- Yves MissiOut
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Thunder 88%
ACTUAL RESULT
Thunder won by 10
COMBINED SCORE
228
Margin of Victory — New Orleans Pelicans (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost ← actual result
84%
Won by 1-3
5%
Won by 4-7
5%
Won by 8-14
5%
Won by 15-21
2%
Won by 21+
1%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 228.
O/U LINE 210
72% over ✓28% under
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
53% over ✓47% under
O/U LINE 230
32% over68% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
16% over84% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
7% over93% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
2% over98% under ✓
Starter Grades
Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.
OKC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG
32.7
Jalen WilliamsSG
21.6
Chet HolmgrenC
15.0
Aaron WigginsSG
12.0
Isaiah HartensteinC
11.2
NO
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Zion WilliamsonPF
24.6
Brandon IngramSF
22.2
Trey Murphy IIISF
21.2
CJ McCollumPG
21.1
Dejounte MurrayPG
17.5
Follow Us