LAL80
FINAL
109MIN
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Los Angeles Lakers vs Minnesota Timberwolves — Win Probability

FINAL
Los Angeles Lakers logo
Los Angeles Lakers
12-8
80
VS
Minnesota Timberwolves logo
Minnesota Timberwolves
9-10
109
Model expected score: Los Angeles Lakers 111.2 – Minnesota Timberwolves 115.4 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

LAL
  • Austin ReavesDay-To-Day
  • Quentin GrimesDay-To-Day
MIN
  • Anthony EdwardsOut
  • Donte DiVincenzoOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Timberwolves 65%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Timberwolves won by 29
COMBINED SCORE
189

Margin of Victory — Minnesota Timberwolves (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
38%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
13%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
12%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 189.

O/U LINE 210
81% over19% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
63% over37% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
43% over57% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
24% over76% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
11% over89% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
4% over96% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

LAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
28.2
Anthony DavisC
25.7
LeBron JamesSF
24.4
Austin ReavesSG
20.2
Rui HachimuraPF
13.1
MIN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Anthony EdwardsSG
27.6
Julius RandlePF
18.7
Jaden McDanielsPF
12.2
Rudy GobertC
12.0
Mike ConleyPG
8.2
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