MIA89FINAL
108BOS
Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics — Win Probability
FINAL
Miami Heat
9-9
89
VS
Boston Celtics
16-4
108
Injury Report
Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.
MIA
- Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day
BOS
Nothing on the report.
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Celtics 78%
ACTUAL RESULT
Celtics won by 19
COMBINED SCORE
197
Margin of Victory — Boston Celtics (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost
27%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
16%
Won by 21+
19%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 197.
O/U LINE 210
84% over16% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
68% over32% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
47% over53% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
28% over72% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
13% over87% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
5% over95% under ✓
Starter Grades
Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.
MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyler HerroSG
23.9
Andrew WigginsSF
19.0
Bam AdebayoC
18.1
Jimmy ButlerPF
17.0
Duncan RobinsonSF
11.0
BOS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jayson TatumPF
26.8
Jaylen BrownSF
22.2
Kristaps PorziņģisC
19.5
Derrick WhiteSG
16.4
Jrue HolidayPG
11.1
Follow Us