DAL137
FINAL
131POR
← back to predictions

Dallas Mavericks vs Portland Trail Blazers — Win Probability

FINAL
Dallas Mavericks logo
Dallas Mavericks
12-8
137
VS
Portland Trail Blazers logo
Portland Trail Blazers
8-12
131
Model expected score: Dallas Mavericks 115.5 – Portland Trail Blazers 109.8 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

DAL
  • Morez Johnson Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Sergio de LarreaOut
  • Tarik BiberovicOut
  • Dereck Lively IIOut
POR
  • Ja MorantOut
  • Vit KrejciOut
  • Shaedon SharpeOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Mavericks 68%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Mavericks won by 6
COMBINED SCORE
268

Margin of Victory — Portland Trail Blazers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
65%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14
10%
Won by 15-21
5%
Won by 21+
3%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 268.

O/U LINE 210
79% over ✓21% under
O/U LINE 220
61% over ✓39% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
40% over ✓60% under
O/U LINE 240
22% over ✓78% under
O/U LINE 250
10% over ✓90% under
O/U LINE 260
3% over ✓97% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

DAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
28.1
Kyrie IrvingSG
24.7
Anthony DavisPF
20.0
P.J. WashingtonPF
14.7
Klay ThompsonSF
14.0
POR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Anfernee SimonsSG
19.3
Shaedon SharpeSG
18.5
Deni AvdijaSF
16.9
Deandre AytonC
14.4
Jerami GrantPF
14.4
Privacy PolicyTerms of Service