BOS111
FINAL
115CLE
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Boston Celtics vs Cleveland Cavaliers — Win Probability

FINAL
Boston Celtics logo
Boston Celtics
16-3
111
VS
Cleveland Cavaliers logo
Cleveland Cavaliers
17-3
115
Model expected score: Boston Celtics 117.0 – Cleveland Cavaliers 118.5 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

BOS
Nothing on the report.
CLE
  • Sam MerrillDay-To-Day
  • Jaylon TysonOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Cavaliers 57%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Cavaliers won by 4
COMBINED SCORE
226

Margin of Victory — Cleveland Cavaliers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
46%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
11%
Won by 8-14
16%
Won by 15-21
11%
Won by 21+
8%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 226.

O/U LINE 210
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 220
79% over ✓21% under
O/U LINE 230
61% over39% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
41% over59% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
22% over78% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
10% over90% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

BOS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jayson TatumPF
26.8
Jaylen BrownSF
22.2
Kristaps PorziņģisC
19.5
Derrick WhiteSG
16.4
Jrue HolidayPG
11.1
CLE
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Donovan MitchellSG
24.0
Darius GarlandPG
20.6
Evan MobleyPF
18.5
Jarrett AllenC
13.5
Max StrusSF
9.4
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